XGBoost
EPL Prediction
This notebook predicts the Premier League winner for the 2024-25 season using an XGBoost model. It outlines data collection from football-data.org, extensive feature engineering, and a comprehensive prediction framework. The analysis includes visualizations of championship probabilities, current season performance, and model feature importance, highlighting Liverpool as the predicted winner with an 82.9% probability.
Tip: Try `uv pip` for ⚡️ installs:
!uv pip install
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Testing API access...
Status Code: 403
Response: {"message":"The resource you are looking for is restricted and apparently not within your permissions. Please check your subscription.","errorCode":403}...
Testing competitions endpoint...
Competitions - Status Code: 200
Number of competitions: 183
Premier League found: Premier League - Season: 2025-08-15
Testing areas endpoint...
Areas - Status Code: 200
Checking for API key...
No API key found in secrets.
Getting Premier League competition details...
Status Code: 403
Error accessing Premier League data: {"message":"The resource you are looking for is restricted and apparently not within your permissions. Please check your subscription.","errorCode":403}
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Testing Premier League standings access...
Standings Status Code: 403
Standings Error: {"message":"The resource you are looking for is restricted and apparently not within your permissions. Please check your subscription.","errorCode":403}
'<' not supported between instances of 'float' and 'str'
<span style='color:var(--red,#a00)'>---------------------------------------------------------------------------</span> <span style='color:var(--red,#a00)'>TypeError</span> Traceback (most recent call last) <span style='color:var(--cyan,#0aa)'>Cell </span><span style='color:var(--green,#0a0)'>In[86], line 18</span> <span style='color:var(--green,#0a0)'> 16</span> <span style='color:#5f8787'><i># Get unique teams</i></span> <span style='color:var(--green,#0a0)'> 17</span> <span style='color:#008700'><b>if</b></span> <span style='color:var(--yellow,#a60)'>'HomeTeam'</span> <span style='color:#af00ff'><b>in</b></span> premier_league_data.columns <span style='color:#af00ff'><b>and</b></span> <span style='color:var(--yellow,#a60)'>'AwayTeam'</span> <span style='color:#af00ff'><b>in</b></span> premier_league_data.columns: <span style='color:var(--green,#0a0)'>---> 18</span> unique_teams = <span style='color:#008700'><span style='background:var(--yellow,#a60)'>sorted</span></span><span style='background:var(--yellow,#a60)'>(</span><span style='color:#008700'><span style='background:var(--yellow,#a60)'>set</span></span><span style='background:var(--yellow,#a60)'>(premier_league_data[</span><span style='color:var(--yellow,#a60)'><span style='background:var(--yellow,#a60)'>'HomeTeam'</span></span><span style='background:var(--yellow,#a60)'>].unique()) | </span><span style='color:#008700'><span style='background:var(--yellow,#a60)'>set</span></span><span style='background:var(--yellow,#a60)'>(premier_league_data[</span><span style='color:var(--yellow,#a60)'><span style='background:var(--yellow,#a60)'>'AwayTeam'</span></span><span style='background:var(--yellow,#a60)'>].unique()))</span> <span style='color:var(--green,#0a0)'> 20</span> <span style='color:#5f8787'><i># Basic statistics for goals</i></span> <span style='color:var(--green,#0a0)'> 21</span> <span style='color:#008700'><b>if</b></span> <span style='color:var(--yellow,#a60)'>'FTHG'</span> <span style='color:#af00ff'><b>in</b></span> premier_league_data.columns <span style='color:#af00ff'><b>and</b></span> <span style='color:var(--yellow,#a60)'>'FTAG'</span> <span style='color:#af00ff'><b>in</b></span> premier_league_data.columns: <span style='color:var(--red,#a00)'>TypeError</span>: '<' not supported between instances of 'float' and 'str'
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PREMIER LEAGUE 2025/2026 PREDICTION SUMMARY
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• PREDICTED WINNER: LIVERPOOL
• Championship Probability: 86.5%
• Current Points: 15 points
• Points Per Game: 3.00
• Goal Difference: +6
• TOP 3 CONTENDERS:
🥇 Liverpool (86.5% chance)
🥈 Arsenal (78.0% chance)
🥉 Tottenham (66.1% chance)
• MODEL PERFORMANCE:
- Training Data: 2760 matches
- Test Accuracy: 50.6%
- Historical Seasons: 9
- Total Matches Analyzed: 3470
• KEY INSIGHTS:
- Liverpool leads with superior points per game (3.00)
- Strong goal difference (+6) indicates dominant attacking and defensive play
- Historical performance data supports current form
- Model considers form, historical strength, and head-to-head records
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